Coensys, Inc.

Risk Modeling and Analysis with Anylogic 

Simulations can help you understand the impacts of changes, decisions, and external uncertainties. Simulations can highlight unintended consequences, possible new failure modes or risk areas, gaming by people, resource constraints, bottleneck areas, etc. Simulation enables an organization to create an environment for low risk, rapid feedback experimentation. Such experimentation is a critical part of risk modeling and analysis. This experimentation is typically carried out on live systems and processes with sometimes disastrous consequences. 

Performing simulation analysis upfront enables leading companies to understand risks, avoid some of the risks or mitigate their impacts, and dramatically improve chances of successful handling of risks that materialize.

All three simulation paradigms can play an important role in an organization's risk management strategy.

Use Discrete Event Simulation to model your operational risks, capacity risks, system failure risks.

Use System Dynamics to model interrelationships between a wide variety of risks. System Dynamics is able to model quantitative as well as qualitative risks. Most importantly, it models the interdependencies between various risks. Use system dynamics to understand whether multiple small risks can feed into each other to become big risks, or what interventions can serve as control points for these risks.

Use Agent Based Models to look at emerging risks and risk cascades. Use ABM to model risks from networked systems, human behaviors, previously unforeseen risks. ABMs can help in finding models of failures that emerge from interactions between multiple agents.

All three techniques can help in identifying impacts of any interventions and determine the effectiveness of risk control strategies. You can perform monte-carlo analysis to develop risk distributions, perform sensitivity analysis to see which variables have the most impact, and what-if analysis to play multiple scenarios.

These methods complement statistical methods and overcome many of the deficiencies of statistical risk models. If you are serious about managing risks, then these methods have to be part of your risk toolbox.

We provide risk modeling consulting services to a wide range of industries.

Contact Us to See How We can Help You